Other Scenarios

GOLD EXPORTS

Goldman, Sachs & Co. Increase Their Shipments of
Gold Bars to $7,000,000 [sic] - Metal for Paris.

Goldman, Sachs & Co. increased the amount of their engagement of gold bars for export by $200,000 making their shipment altogether $700,000. This gold they will ship to Paris by steamer [sic] Teutonic sailing to-day.

The total engagements of gold since the movement began on December 3 is now $6,200,000.

Wall Street Journal, December 23, 08, 8:2

MORE GOLD ENGAGED

TO-DAY $700,000 WILL BE SENT FROM
NEW YORK TO PARIS

Sterling was again strong yesterday and Goldman, Sachs & Co. increased the amount of their engagement of gold bars for export by $200,000, making their shipment altogether $700,000. This gold they will ship to Paris by [the] steamer TEUTONIC to-day. ...

Journal of Commerce, December 23, 08, 2:6

As a result of the continued strength in the foreign exchange market, a further engagement of $200,000 of gold bars for export to France was effected by the same international banking house which engaged $500,000 of such bars for shipment by today's steamship. If the demand for London remittances continues to increase, it is believed that the sterling exchange price will reach figures at which exports of gold coin will become profitable. The available supply of gold bars in the United States assay office now is exhausted, so that additional shipments to Europe will have to be made in the form of coin. ...

New York Commercial, December 23, 08, 4:1

EXPORTS. - The following is a detailed report of specie exported from the district of New York from December 21 to December 26, inclusive:

Steamer..............................................................Amount
Teutonic-Cherbourg-Assy gold bars...........$699,010

Journal of Commerce, December 28, 08, 3:4

The market was practically at the gold export point all through the week, but the only shipments of gold made to Paris was $700,000 by Wednesday's steamer. Probably more would have been sent but this shipment exhausted the supply of bars on hand in the Assay Office and no more gold bars will be available until more have been made from the daily receipts of bullion at the Assay Office.
It is considered hardly probable that any more gold will go out this week, on account of the light supply of bars at the Assay Office, but after the distribution of the January disbursement of interest and dividends have been completed, it may be that exports of gold will be resumed, and it is possible that some coin may be sent to Europe, although the Bank of France is understood to object to receive United States coin [Emphasis supplied.] because bars are more desirable for its use in increasing its reserve. It is not the practice of European bankers to melt up receipts of foreign coin, as is done in this country whenever foreign coin is deposited at the Assay Office.

Wall Street Journal, December 29, 08, 6:2

All U. S. Government reports are in agreement that the December 22, 1908 engagement consisted entirely of gold bars. From the date of this engagement, it would be expected that it could not reach Paris before the end of the year. Our correlation data (1908 [1] and 1909 [2]) clearly supports that France did not receive this engagement in December of 1908, but did receive it in January, 1909. As a result, the new total of U. S. gold bars imported by France in January should be $3,119,010. Our second parameter, that the coin portion of the January 8th engagement, $1,500,000, should not be indicated in the French import information, remains unchanged.

French Import.

The French import of U. S. gold bars, and her import of gold coin from "Autres Pays" (which includes monthly U. S. gold coin imports as well as the gold coin imports from Spain, Switzerland and other countries; the U. S. is only an, as yet, unknown part of this total) on a monthly basis from January through April, 1909 [2], is as follows:

In January, France received $3,564,917 in gold bars from the U.S., which compares favorably to our postulated French receipt of $3,119,010 in gold bars from the U.S. The $445,907 overage is consistent with the pattern of overages that we have exhibited in our eleven year study, 1904 through 1914. More importantly, however, France did not receive the $1,500,000 that was the purported coin component of the January 8th engagement, at least not in January; although coin imports from the United States comprise only an unknown component of the monthly coin imports received from all "Autres Pays," the totals can tell us what was not received in a particular month. The two parameters, previously discussed, which would confirm that the January 12th - $3,000,000 American Gold Eagle - engagement remained to be shipped after the OCEANIC's departure, are satisfied by the French import information.

Other Possible Correlation Scenarios.

1. If we use the U. S. Customs House export data that appears on the previous page [3], France should have received in bars $3,520,000 from the OCEANIC, $400,000 from the ST. LOUIS, and, from our December 22nd engagement, $699,010 from the TEUTONIC [CAMPANIA ?] 1 , for a total receipt of gold bars of $4,619,010. AND she should have also received the $1,500,000 in gold coin from the ST. LOUIS. She would be noticeably deficient in both bars and coin.
2. Reports from the Bureau of Statistics, Bureau of the Mint and Treasury Department all indicate that $2,920,000 in gold bars, but only $2,500,000 in gold coin was shipped to France during January, 1909. The original source for these figures was, of course, the New York Customs House. However, these agencies also indicate that $3,310,000 in gold coin and $10,571,232 in gold bars were shipped to France between January 1st and June 31st, 1909, and that this is the total of gold exports to that country during calendar 1909 [The last 1909 gold engagement for France occurred on June 25th].

An identification of other coin engagements during 1909 would further define the exact bar/coin composition of the January 16th export report.

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